This Week's Market Update

This Week’s Market Commentary

by admin on May 2, 2011

There are only four relevant economic reports scheduled for release this week, but two of them are considered to be highly important to the financial and mortgage markets. Unlike many Mondays, the week kicks off with important data being posted today. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will post their manufacturing index for April late this morning.

This is one of the first important economic reports released each month and gives us an indication of manufacturer sentiment. A reading above 50 means that more surveyed trade executives felt business improved during the month than those who felt it had worsened. This points toward more manufacturing activity and could hurt bond prices, pushing mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of 59.7, which would be a decline from March’s level of sentiment. The lower the reading, the better the news for bonds and mortgage rates.

March’s Factory Orders data is Tuesday’s only relatively important data. It will be released at 10:00AM, giving us a measure of manufacturing sector strength. It is similar to last week’s Durable Goods Orders, except this report includes non-durable goods such as food and clothing. Generally, the market is more concerned with the durable goods orders like refrigerators and electronics than items such as cigarettes and toothpaste. This is why the Durable Goods report usually has more of an impact on the financial markets than the Factory Orders report does. Still, a noticeably smaller increase than the 1.9% that is expected could push mortgage rates slightly lower. But, a much larger increase in new orders could lead to slightly higher mortgage pricing Tuesday.

There are no relevant government reports or events scheduled for Wednesday, meaning non-economic factors such as stock prices will probably have the biggest influence on bond trading and mortgage rates that day. Generally speaking, a stock rally pulls funds from bonds, leading to bond selling and higher mortgage rates. However, stock selling makes bonds more appealing to investors. When the funds are shifted into bonds to escape the volatility in stocks, we often see mortgage rates move lower. If the major stock indexes remain calm Wednesday, mortgage rates should follow suit.
The Labor Department will release its 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs data early Thursday morning. This information helps us measure employee productivity in the workplace. High levels of productivity help allow low-inflationary economic growth. If employee productivity is rapidly rising, the bond market should react favorably. However, a decrease could cause bond prices to drop and mortgage rates to rise Thursday morning. It is expected to show a 1.0% increase in productivity.
Friday brings us the release of the almighty monthly Employment report, giving us April’s employment statistics. This is where we may see a huge rally or major sell-off in the bond market and potentially large changes in mortgage rates. The ideal situation for the bond and mortgage markets would be an increase in the unemployment rate and a much smaller number of payrolls added to the economy during the month than was expected.
Just how much of an improvement or worsening in rates depends on how much variance there is between forecasts and actual readings. This could turn out to be a wonderful day in the mortgage market, but it also carries risks of seeing mortgage rates move higher if the Labor Department posts stronger than expected readings. Current forecasts are calling for the unemployment rate to remain at 8.8% and that approximately 183,000 jobs were added during the month.
Overall, I believe Friday will be the most important day of the week with the employment data being posted. It can easily erase the week’s accumulated gains or losses in mortgage rates if it shows any surprises. We may actually see a noticeable change in rates tomorrow also if the ISM index shows favorable or unfavorable results. The middle part of the week will likely be the calmest, but I still suggest proceeding cautiously if still floating an interest rate. This would be a good week to maintain contact with your mortgage professional if you have not locked a rate yet.

Last Chance: 3.5 Percent Down

Mortgage industry changes: Low rates and terms may soon be history

You are going to be hearing a lot about restructuring the mortgage industry in the next months and years.

But the bottom line for home buyers is buy now and get financing in place by as early as May. The great terms of recent years will soon be gone, and probably gone forever.

Experts say you will probably never again see down payments in the 5 percent range (even now becoming harder to find) or 30-year fixed rates under 5 percent.

The median down payment in nine major U.S. cities rose to 22 percent late last year. This was the highest requirement since 1997 on properties purchased through conventional mortgages, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

In many areas, however, a down payment of only 10 percent of the mortgage amount could be available for people with high credit scores.

The lowest down payments are still offered by the Federal Housing Administration, FHA. They will finance a home with a 3.5 percent down payment.

But a recent Obama Administration white paper on the mortgage industry hints that this very low down payment might change as the federal footprint in the mortgage market shrinks.

According to CNN Money, Congress will be considering raising FHA down payment requirements, approving higher insurance fees for FHA mortgages, and changing rules for ‘qualified’ mortgages.  This could mean higher interest rates for consumers and higher down payments, perhaps up to 30 percent.

With its low down payment requirements, low interest rates, and lower credit score requirements, FHA now has a 30 percent market share in the mortgage arena but plans are to reduce its activity to just 10 percent.

Administration officials say the planned process could take some time, but it might include phasing out federal backing of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Since the mortgage crisis began, the government has bailed out the federally backed entities to the tune of $150 billion.

7 Things You Should NOT Do When Applying for a Home Loan

This is a list of things to steer clear of when you are seeking to obtain financing for a home. If you do any of these things, please contact your loan officer immediately.

Even if  you have been pre-qualified, we can help you re-qualify.

1. Don’t buy or lease an auto!
Lenders look carefully at your debt-to-income ratio. A large payment such as a car lease or purchase can greatly impact those ratios and prevent you from qualifying for a home loan.

2. Don’t move assets from one bank account to another!
These transfers show up as new deposits and complicate the application process, as you must then disclose and document the source of funds for each new account. The lender can verify each account as it currently exists. You can consolidate your accounts later if you need to.

3. Don’t change jobs!
A new job may involve a probation period, which must be satisfied before income from the new job can be considered for qualifying purposes.

4. Don’t buy new furniture or major appliances for your “new home”!
If the new purchases increase the amount of debt you are responsible for on a monthly basis, there is the possibility this may disqualify you from getting the loan, or cut down on the available funds you need to meet the closing costs.

5. Don’t run a credit report on yourself!
This will show as an inquiry on your lender’s credit report. Inquiries must be explained in writing.

6. Don’t attempt to consolidate bills before speaking with your lender!
The loan officer can advise you if this needs to be done.

7. Don’t pack or ship information needed for the loan application!
Important paperwork such as W-2 forms, divorce decrees, and tax returns should not be sent with your household goods. Duplicate copies take weeks to obtain, and could stall the closing date on your transaction.